I see a wave materializing, yet at the same time if the following Republicans fall then the GOP will be in for a long night of Republicans being evicted. If the wave is BIG as I expect, then you better believe that Tom Cole will have new diggs come Wednesday morning (the janitor’s closet in the Capitol).
Seats listed below are either in Republican favorable districts or not on radar as being top tier races. What makes them stand out are strong Democratic challengers or a slight turn in the district going toward Democrats.
**Indicate seats I see Democrats already picking up.
Of the endangered Democrats: Lampson is unlikely to win and Kanjorski will survive narrowly. Pressure on Murtha is overhyped. Shea-Porter and Boyda are in stronger positions and Cazayoux should win within 2-3%. Carney and McNerney are very safe and we all know that Mahoney is gone. So we’re looking at a net gain of 49 seats.
AL 3rd – Rogers
AZ 3rd – Shadegg **
CA 3rd – Lungren **
CA 26th – Dreier
CA 46th – Rohrabacher
CA 50th – Bilbray
FL 10th – Young
FL 12th – Putnam
FL 15th – Open Seat
IL 6th – Roskam
IL 13th – Biggert
IL 18th – Open Seat
IN 4th – Buyer
IA 4th – Latham
IA 5th – King
LA 1st – Scalise
MD 6th – Bartlett **
MI 8th – Rogers **
MI 11th – McCotter
MN 2nd – Kline
MO 6th – Graves
NV 2nd – Heller **
NJ 5th – Garrett **
NM 2nd – Open Seat **
NY 3rd – King
NY 26th – Open Seat **
NC 5th – Foxx
NC 10th – McHenry
OH 3rd – Turner
OH 7th – Open Seat
OH 12th – Tiberi
OH 14th – LaTourette
PA 6th – Gerlach **
PA 15th – Dent **
PA 18th – Murphy
SC 1st – Brown **
SC 2nd – Wilson
TX 7th – Culberson
TX 10th – McCaul **
TX 32nd – Sessions
VA 10th – Wolf
WA 4th – Hastings
WY AL – Open Seat
I think we win NM-02 outright without a waive, and maybe MO-09 too. Otherwise, I’m with you.
NM 2 is a Democratic district, yet also very conservative. This explains why Republicans have been able to maintain a grip here in the past. However, this year I see Democrats finally picking it up.
MO 9 I’m not very confident with. Sure Baker will perform strong in Columbia, but unlikely in the rural areas. If she doesn’t perform strong in suburban St. Louis then she has no real chance. She’s all pro-choice in a conservative leaning district and that is a liability.
This is a very conservative part of upstate NY also don’t think OH-12 is very safe. This includes African-American neighborhoods of Columbus and three college campuses in the two additional counties. This could be a surprise upset.
Also FL-12 is majority Democratic and FL-15 has some of Florida’s highest unemployment and foreclosures.
It’s a real nail-biter for us working on Bob Alexander’s campaign in MI-08 today. We appreciate the vote of confidence, and hope, hope, hope, we can turn this District blue and participate in the change that’s coming for this country.
Seems to me it would take a true Blue wave to dislodge the troll that is Mean Jean Schmidt of Ohio. I just don’t see Wulsin winning without a true Blue Tsunami. And boy does she deserve to lose.
I will be leaving to to be a poll worker registering voters at the polls soon. Go team Blue!
Here’s my take on both of those races and the reasons why Democrats will take these seats:
8th – Rogers (R)
Being wedged between two competitive races with DCCC attacks overflowing into your district does not benefit anyone, especially Mike Rogers. While Rogers district is experiencing a higher rate of unemployment than the national average it is not as severe here as elsewhere statewide. However, Shiawassee County is the exception. Unemployment in Shiawassee County is 10%. Rogers must carry 65% or more of the vote in Shiawassee, Oakland, and Clinton counties. Ingham County, home to Lansing, will most certainly favor Democrat Bob Alexander. Livingston County, a Republican stronghold, must deliver 70% or more of the vote in Rogers favor. Two Libertain candidates are guaranteed to take votes from Rogers in a race that will be closer than anyone has anticipated. African-Americans are centered in Ingham County and only compose roughly 10% of the electorate. However, union workers are a strong force within the district and recent news from major employers within the district certainly spell trouble. Massive layoffs in auto manufacturing and possible layoffs at Pepsico should indeed have Rogers worried. Rogers also lost the endorsement of the Lansing State Journal which called him too conservative and in lock step with the failed Bush policies, a statement supported by the far conservative Livingston Daily, which endorsed Rogers, but not with glowing reviews. Even though Alexander has not raised a sizeable campaign war chest he has raised more within the district than Rogers. Rogers has also been heavily dependent on PAC money, a sign of a weakened incumbent. Obama coattails in Ingham and Oakland counties should take Alexander over the finish line in a surprise upset of the night.
Outlook: Alexander defeats Rogers (Dem Gain)
2nd – Schmidt (R)
“Mean Jean” Schmidt has struggled holding this seat since winning it in a special election. Those struggles are indicitive that Schmidt has alienated independents and moderates, providing an opening for Democrat Victoria Wulsin. The race surprised many by how strong Wulsin performed in this Republican leaning district. Republicans commissioned a poll in October which clearly showed Schmidt behind, forcing them to spend here. However, the DCCC had already known beforehand that Schmidt was behind and beat the NRCC to the airwaves. Wulsin’s fundraising has been much stronger than Schmidt, performing ahead of Schmidt in contributions received within the district. A good thing for Wulsin is that a third party candidate has the potential of costing Schmidt votes, especially in a close race. Wulsin needs to carry the areas where she performed strongly in 2006. That includes the counties of Brown, Hamilton, Pike, and Scioto. Strong areas for Schmidt are Adams, Clermont, and Warren county. Two areas to watch are Adams and Hamilton counties. Adams unemployment rate is over 9% so that clearly benefits Wulsin. Should Wulsin carry Adams County and perform over 55% in Hamilton County then “Mean Jean” is gone. Since Democrats are certain to have a much stronger ground operation in Hamilton County than Republicans this is a race slipping away from Republicans, courteousy of radical Schmidt.
Outlook: Wulsin defeats Schmidt (Dem Gain)